Use One Demand Story, Not Three Numbers
Build a demand review narrative that separates baseline forecast, causal adjustments, and financial target gaps.
The move: separate evidence from ambition. Baseline The baseline is the repeatable forecast before judgment. It can be a statistical model, a seasonal naive forecast, an analogy class, or another documented method. Its job is to give the team a neutral anchor. Causal adjustment A human override earns its place only when it names a causal reason. "Sales feels upside" is not a causal reason. "Retailer PO received for week 34 endcap" is. The standard is not certainty; the standard is a traceable assumption. Target gap The financial target may be higher than the demand plan. That is allowed. The…
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