Pre-Mortem Your Investment Thesis
Create a pre-mortem trigger that defines how an investment thesis could fail and what evidence will prompt review.
Create a premortem trigger for an active investment thesis. Use the investment idea where you are most at risk of defending the story instead of updating on evidence. If [specific thesis metric] crosses [threshold] for [period], I will [review action] before adding, holding, or defending the position. In 2 days, check whether you wrote the trigger and attached it to the thesis note. A long equity thesis depends on net retention staying above a specific threshold after a product price increase. A credit investment depends on refinancing access before the next maturity wall and needs a liquidity trigger. A turnaround…
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