REASONING-MODELS5 MIN READ
Probe Before You Predict
Use safe-to-fail probes when cause and effect are only knowable in hindsight.
Complex human system New members are quiet, and the team wants one onboarding ritual for everyone by Monday. The wrong reasoning mode turns a complex behavior problem into false certainty. Cynefin complex domain Probe, sense, respond When cause and effect emerge only after action, the strong move is a bounded probe, not a confident prediction. Predict Pick one ritual from opinion Learning without betting the whole system. Complex reasoning earns confidence through feedback. 01 Diagnose 02 Probe 03 Fresh case Diagnose the domain Sensemaking
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