Quick Reference: Causal Chain Checks
Recall four checks that make a causal explanation action-ready.
Does the chain start with a concrete event? Name the measured gap, population, time window, and stake before explaining anything. This is the first-principles anchor. Does each link answer why the prior link happened? Each sentence should explain the one before it, not introduce a new story. This keeps 5 Whys from becoming a random list. Does the endpoint name a controllable process condition? Useful endpoints look like missing owner, bad default, absent alert, unclear handoff, or brittle rule. Person-shaped endpoints rarely prevent recurrence. What evidence could disprove the chain? Write the log, sample, interview pattern, or comparison that would…
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