Worked Example: Build a Hypothesis Tree
Build a hypothesis tree that decomposes a problem into mutually distinct and testable branches.
Revenue is 12% below plan. The team calls it an execution problem, but the metric can be decomposed before anyone chooses a fix. Hypothesis tree: metric equation -> distinct branches -> predictions -> evidence order The common shortcut is to accept the broad label and launch broad coaching, more activity, or more pressure. That hides which part of the revenue mechanism failed and creates fixes that are too general to verify. Step 1 Revenue = qualified pipeline x win rate x average deal value x close timing. First principles define the branches from the metric's mechanics. Step 2 Branch hypotheses:…
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