Sensitivity Analysis for the Base Case
Use sensitivity analysis to identify which feasibility assumptions drive the development decision.
The base case clears the investment hurdle, but the team does not know which assumption could break the decision. Sensitivity analysis: choose output, vary key inputs, identify breakpoints, decide action The trap is showing a downside case without asking which variable actually controls the decision. Output Set the decision metric: profit on cost must stay above 16 percent. A sensitivity needs a decision threshold or every number is just interesting. Inputs Vary exit yield by +/-25 bps and build cost by +/-5 percent. Choose variables that are material, uncertain, and manageable through evidence or terms. Breakpoints Exit yield +25 bps…
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