Map the Estimate Before You Commit
Choose the right estimation response based on evidence strength and miss cost.
Evidence strength Cost of missing Weak evidence Strong evidence Low miss cost High miss cost Spike first Weak evidence / High miss cost Do not promise precision. Run a short evidence spike, find the reference class, and identify the driver that could move the high end. tl Commit with confidence Strong evidence / High miss cost Use the reference class to choose a higher-confidence date or range. Show contingency and the risk the buffer covers. tr Provisional range Weak evidence / Low miss cost Give a clearly labeled range and a near-term refresh point. Avoid fake accuracy, but keep the…
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