Run a RICE Score Without Fantasy Math
Calculate a RICE score while making confidence and effort assumptions visible.
Prioritize three roadmap ideas with uneven evidence. RICE = Reach x Impact x Confidence / Effort. Use confidence to punish weak evidence, not to decorate the score. The trap is writing “high impact” for a beloved idea and giving it 100% confidence because the room likes it. Reach 1,200 new users/month Use a defined population and time window, not “everyone eventually.” Impact 1.5 on a 0.25/0.5/1/2/3 scale Estimate user-level movement, not strategic excitement. Confidence 70% Discount because evidence is from funnel data plus five interviews, not a completed experiment. Effort 2 person-months Include design, engineering, QA, and launch work. Score…
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