Distinguish a scenario set from a forecast range so the output tests assumptions instead of predicting one future.
A scenario is not a forecast wearing a story. It is a test of the assumptions underneath the forecast. Forecasts project from a model of how the world works. Scenario planning becomes useful when that model may be wrong, incomplete, or fragile. That is why scenario work should not collapse into high, medium, and low versions of the same spreadsheet. Those ranges may help with budgeting, but they rarely challenge the strategy. Forecast ranges vary magnitude A forecast range asks how much: how many customers, how much revenue, how high the cost, how fast the adoption curve. It is valuable…
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