Scenario Planning Protects the Plan
Use base, downside, and upside cases to identify the assumptions that matter most.
A forecast is not a plan until you know which assumptions can break it. What sensitivity analysis gives you Sensitivity analysis connects uncertain inputs to important outputs. For a startup, the output is often cash. If a 10 percent change in churn barely moves runway but a 10-day collections delay removes a month of runway, collections deserves more management attention than churn in that planning cycle. Base, downside, upside Base case is the plan you intend to run. Downside case is the version you must survive. Upside case is the version you must be ready to support. Each should have…
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