Start With a Scoping Question
Write a scenario-planning scoping question with a decision, time horizon, boundary, and uncertainty.
Scenario planning starts when the question stops asking for a prediction and starts asking what could change the decision. The scoping question is the first quality gate. It gives the work a decision focus, a time horizon, and a boundary. It also leaves space for uncertainty, which is the point of scenarios. If the question can be answered with a single forecast, it is probably too narrow. If nobody can tell what decision it supports, it is too broad. Name the decision A scenario question should point toward a future choice: where to invest, how to design a service model,…
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