Segment Before You Score
Choose meaningful segments that make an aggregate comparison fairer.
Averages compare the work and the mix at the same time. The Risk A channel, team, or process can look best overall because it handled easier cases. Simpson's paradox appears when the aggregate relationship changes after splitting by a meaningful subgroup. The Mechanism The overall rate is a weighted average. If each group handles a different mix of easy and hard cases, the weights can dominate the story. That is why the aggregate can reverse even when every subgroup points the other way. The Move Before ranking, ask which variable changes both assignment and outcome. Segment on that variable, compare…
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