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DATA-SKEPTICISM6 MIN READ

Simpson's Paradox Ticket Math

Work through a Simpson's paradox example where aggregate team performance reverses by segment.

Team Blue resolves 82% overall and Team Green resolves 73% overall. But Blue handled mostly simple tickets, while Green handled mostly enterprise tickets. Which team performs better on comparable tickets? Simpson walkthrough: segment rates first, then weighted aggregate, then match metric to decision The common shortcut is to rank teams by the overall average and ignore ticket mix. That can punish the team carrying harder work. Read simple tickets Blue resolves 80 of 90 simple tickets, or about 89%. Green resolves 10 of 10 simple tickets, or 100%. On simple work, Green is stronger, but Green handled very few simple…

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