DATA-SKEPTICISM5 MIN READ
Sort Signals by Base Rate
Classify workplace signals by whether they incorporate the relevant base rate before recommending action.
A fraud queue is filling fast. Sort each signal by how well it respects the base rate. Raw alert Base-rate adjusted Missing denominator Flag plus prior account risk adjusted One high model score raw One vivid complaint missing False-positive estimate by segment 1,800 alerts with no total volume base-rate adjustment Practiced separating raw alerts from probability-aware evidence. Ask: compared with how many total cases, and how common is the event normally?
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