Capacity Is a Forecast, Not a Utilization Target

Capacity is a planning input, not a motivational speech. Use it to decide how much goal-supporting work the team can likely finish while keeping the Definition of Done intact. A practical sequence is: start with recent completed range, subtract known availability reductions, add only high-confidence stretch work, and keep the selected stories tied to one Sprint Goal. If the sprint plan only works when nothing interrupts the team, it is not a forecast; it is wishful thinking. The point is not to be conservative. The point is to be honest early, so adaptation stays visible instead of leaking into quality…

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