Decision Walk: Turn Scenarios Into Triggered Moves
Use scenario logic to separate immediate commitments from trigger-based decisions.
The planning moment The team has three plausible futures on the wall, but nobody can answer what should actually be funded now. A scenario set without triggered moves is insight with no steering wheel. From futures to actions No-regret moves -> signposts -> trigger-based bets The point of scenarios is not to admire uncertainty. It is to make smarter commitments under it. Weak use Pick a favorite scenario and plan as if it will happen. The plan stays active without pretending to know the future. Scenarios should change the timing and shape of commitments, not just the mood of the…
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