Use a hypothesis and evidence threshold to filter noisy information during analysis.
EVIDENCE WALK Your hypothesis is that trial drop-off is driven by setup complexity, not price. The team brings four evidence items: three loud sales anecdotes, step-level setup completion data, competitor discount pages, and five interviews with churned trials. Which evidence should you inspect first? Step-level setup completion data segmented by trial source. Strong. It directly tests whether users stop during setup and can show whether the pattern holds across segments. Competitor discount pages. Weak for this hypothesis. It may provide market context, but it does not test whether your users leave because setup is complex. The loudest sales anecdotes. Useful…
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