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STRATEGIC THINKING5 MIN READ

Build a Hypothesis Test Plan

Create a three-step hypothesis test plan for a strategic decision.

State the decision and hypothesis Decision: should we build guided setup this quarter? Hypothesis: setup complexity, not price, is the main driver of trial drop-off. The hypothesis is useful because it names a cause and can be disproved. Name support and disproof evidence Support: step-level setup abandonment, interviews mentioning configuration confusion, improved activation in a guided prototype. Disproof: activated users still churn for price, or drop-off happens before setup starts. Writing disproof evidence protects the team from only collecting proof. Set the decision threshold Build guided setup if setup drop-off explains at least 60% of lost activations in the target…

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