Trace How an 8 Percent Retail Spike Becomes a 40 Percent Factory Reaction

Retail sell-through rises 8 percent for one week on a seasonal item. The distributor adds a 10 percent protection factor because its replenishment lead time is long. The factory then batches production and plans 40 percent above the original retail baseline. How did the signal get amplified? Bullwhip grows when each tier forecasts from orders, adds its own protection, and reacts to lead-time delay or batching. The common trap is blaming the final factory number without asking what each upstream partner was seeing and protecting against. Step 1 Retail signal = +8 percent sell-through for one week This is the…

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