Recall the core estimated-tax triggers and common wrong assumptions.
Myth I got a refund last year, so I am safe this year. Your line Last year is a clue, not a shield. New consulting income, gains, or lower withholding can change the payment picture. Using last year's refund as proof without checking current paid-in tax. It redirects from last year's memory to current observation, which is the core OODA move in a year with new income or withholding facts. I will pay when I file because that is when the tax is final. The final return settles the year, but the payment system expects tax during the year through…
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