Three Rival Explanations

Before 'therefore,' write three other reasons. The Claim A correlation tells you that two things move together. It does not tell you which one moved the other, whether both were moved by a third factor, or whether the pattern only appears in the selected sample you can see. The Mechanism Rival explanations protect you from confusing timing with cause. Ask whether the direction could be reversed, whether a hidden variable explains both sides, and whether the sample leaves out failures or non-adopters. This is the practical version of correlation-does-not-imply-causation. The Check Choose the smallest comparison that would change your confidence:…

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