Calculate The Retention Bet
Estimate whether a retention intervention is economically justified using future value and save cost.
Decide whether to spend 40 engineering hours to save a $24k ARR account. Use CLV logic: future value times recovery probability minus save cost, adjusted for fit and repeatability. Treating every churn threat as equally worth saving ignores opportunity cost and can make the portfolio less healthy. Before Decision rule: Save the account because churn is bad. After Decision rule: Fund saves where future healthy value and repeatable learning exceed intervention cost. Future value $24k ARR × 40% gross margin = $9.6k annual gross profit before extra support. Revenue alone exaggerates the value of a costly account. Save cost 40…
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