Calibrating Financial Confidence: Testing Your Predictions
Identify overconfidence bias in personal financial estimates and adjust predictions using reality checks and historical benchmarks
You're planning your retirement savings. You predict you'll save $800/month consistently for 30 years and achieve 9% annual returns. You estimate you only need $15K emergency fund because 'nothing bad will happen to me—I'm healthy and my job is secure.' Which branch reveals overconfidence thinking? How would you design your own financial plan to account for what you can't predict? After each scenario, learner predicts accuracy of their choice (0-100%). System compares self-assessment to actual outcome. Pattern reveals calibration gap.
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