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FINANCIAL-FORECASTING5 MIN READ

Rolling Forecast, Not Budget Rehash

Distinguish a rolling forecast from a budget variance exercise.

Principle: Keep the horizon constant and the assumptions current. Horizon A rolling forecast always looks the same distance ahead. If the business uses 12 months, closing March means the model now runs April through next March. This prevents year-end tunnel vision. Refresh Actuals replace estimates. Driver evidence replaces stale assumptions. The update should show what changed, why it changed, and which future periods are affected. Governance Rolling forecasts fail when every update becomes a renegotiation. Define which inputs refresh by data, which require owner sign-off, and which require a scenario trigger.

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