Scenarios Before Sensitivities

Principle: Coherent cases beat isolated toggles when uncertainty is linked. Scenario Use a scenario when multiple drivers would plausibly move together. Name the case, describe the trigger, and change only the assumptions connected to that future. Sensitivity Use a sensitivity when you need to understand the impact of one uncertain driver. It is useful for ranking risk, not for describing a complete operating environment. Rolling Use In a rolling forecast, scenarios should have trigger rules. If pipeline coverage falls below 2.5x or raw material price exceeds a threshold, the downside case becomes the working discussion rather than a theoretical appendix.

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