Explain why a single before/after result is weak causal evidence and how comparison design improves the claim.
The pilot looked successful. What changed when the team asked for causal evidence? Before: one pilot store, pre vs post. After: matched comparison and rollout sample. Added matched non-reset stores because the comparison estimates what sales might have done during the same week without the layout change. Separated total sales lift from incremental lift because a promotion or seasonal bump can move both pilot and comparison stores. Expanded the pilot across store types because one store can describe its own result but cannot represent a national population by itself. Causal confidence comes from the comparison, not the prettier before/after line.…
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